Analysis of prices compares Leave and Remain areas of England
With Brexit delayed again and a general election announced the upheaval caused by uncertainty in the housing market is not set to go away just yet but new research shows how voting intentions have affected prices.
Leave voting areas have recorded higher average house price increases than Remain voting areas since the European Union referendum in June 2016, according to the research from online estate agent Housesimple.
The analysis of average house price changes in 324 local authority areas in England since the vote in June 2016, shows that 16 of the top 20 performing ones voted Leave. In Rutland prices increased by 26.27%, in Corby 24.8%), in Harborough 23.79%, in Blaby 21.68% and in the Forest of Dean by 21.47%.
Only four Remain voting areas made it into the top 20, including the Cotswolds with growth of 30.45%, Leicester up 21.57%, Rushcliffe up 19.62% and Stroud up 19.35%.
Meanwhile, average house prices in London and the South East have been hardest hit since the vote and 12 of the worst performing are in London, including the City of London with a fall of 11.86%, Westminster down 10.08% and Hammersmith and Fulham down 8.2%. In the commuter belt Bracknell Forest saw prices drop 6.63%, Elmbridge down 4.32% and Windsor and Maidenhead down by 0.66%.
‘It is important to remember that correlation does not always equal causality. Just voting Leave hasn’t made your house more valuable on its own. There are a range of reasons driving house prices in England,’ said Sam Mitchell, Housesimple chief executive officer.
‘The data points to an overall North/South divide. Brexit uncertainty does not appear to have affected the North to the extent that we may be seeing in the South. Other Important factors underpin these findings, including punitive stamp duty that has a lower impact on properties valued under £500,000 so there is less of a drag factor in the North,’ he explained.
‘We’re also seeing a longer term trend whereby house price growth in London and the South East that really took off in 2012 has been slowing to more sustainable levels since 2016, or even dropping in some London areas. At the same time properties in the North and the Midlands saw more modest growth post 2007, and cities like Manchester, Liverpool, Leicester and Leeds have robust local economies and increasing demand for housing which has helped to drive double digit price increases since the referendum,’ he pointed out.
‘The bottom line is that despite the fact Brexit uncertainty will now drag on into 2020, the market fundamentals, a long running supply and demand issue, historically low interest rates and growing income levels, remain in place,’ he added.